Source: http://www.cellular-news.com/story/23725.php

The worldwide 3G subscribers base will grow at a CAGR of 55.93% for the period spanning from 2006 to 2010, where major share is contributed by Asia-Pacific regions, according to the latest research from RNCOS.

Among its key findings include:

• CDMA2000 and WCDMA market is forecasted to account for 41% of the total worldwide wireless market by 2010.
• WLAN industry is set for wider acceptance across all industry segments. Particularly, the high growth will come from WLAN home applications.
• The standard 802.11n, anticipated to be formulated by 2007, will create exceptional uptake of technology as it has improved speed and security features.
• China presents the major opportunity area, where WLAN customers will increase as prices of WLAN equipment are seeing downward trend.
• The Indian hotspot market is on the cusp of a period of sustained growth. There are clear opportunities for full-fledged billing, PIN/security administration for hotspot users, and roaming solutions. Also, a more appropriate model around the hotspot (something similar to the Indian STD/ISD PCO or long-distance public calling office) needs to be developed making it a more attractive proposition to run a franchise or manage one.
• Consumer Electronics and Mobile phones, IT Security market will present new growth opportunities for WLAN industry.

Intel will add WiMAX to notebooks in 2008, the chip giant told delegates at the Intel Developer Forum in Beijing. WiMAX Vision spoke to Intel’s Christian Stavig, manager, WiMAX programme office, about his company’s WiMAX roadmap.

Source: http://www.wimax-vision.com/newt/l/wimaxvision/viewarticle.html?artid=20017419207

In a technology demonstration at the Developer Forum, David Perlmutter, Intel Senior Vice President and General Manager, Mobility Group, showcased for the first time Intel’s mobile WiMAX with MIMO solution integrated into a concept Centrino-based notebook.

An evolution of its Santa Rosa processor, Intel’s “Montevina” processor will be available in the latter half of 2008. It will contain 40 per cent smaller components making it “ideal for mini- and sub-notebooks,” Intel said in a statement. 

Intel will also offer an integrated Wi-Fi/WiMAX solution “as an option” for notebook manufacturers and other OEMs using Montevina silicon.

That first Wi-Fi/WiMAX silicon combination, which will likely embed 802.16e and 802.11b/g/n in notebooks, will be called Echo Peak.

Meanwhile, in 2007, Intel will supply OEMs with a standalone WiMAX processor called Dana Point, which will be housed in an external data card.

Dana Point will predominantly be used in trials at the end of this year and into next year.

Intel is still discussing with its OEM and service provider partners what the best channels to market are for WiMAX, how the WiMAX ‘option’ will be exercised by manufacturers, service providers and consumers themselves, and what the combination of hardware and software will be. 

“There are two distribution models [for WiMAX], one is the Wi-Fi model where you ship it as embedded, the other is a 3G model where it is built to order. In the WiMAX market over time the solution is more like the existing Wi-Fi distribution,” says Stavig.

Intel has slipped behind its original timetable for introducing WiMAX into notebooks in 2006 and handheld devices in 2007.

Independent analyst group Signals Research cites concerns among PC manufacturers.

“The general consensus is that there is a ‘wait and see’ attitude in place among all of the leading PC manufacturers,” Signals Research suggests. “Bottom line, in the words of one major PC supplier, ‘our concern that there may not be enough [WiMAX] infrastructure in place to drive the cost down on the devices to a level that is competitive with other technologies.’”

But there is now a sense that sufficient momentum is building behind WiMAX infrastructure rollouts to justify an acceleration of Intel’s WiMAX plans.

Stavig cites the commitments Sprint Nextel and Clearwire have made to build out infrastructure in the US and says that, globally, Intel anticipates multiple operators deploying WiMAX. 

“There needs to be deployments to justify embedding and hopefully there will be a bunch of announcements this year and next and they will provide proof points to help support the embedded distribution model. I would say the market in general is accelerating.”

Stavig won’t put a figure on Intel’s expectations for WiMAX penetration in notebooks but the chipmaker clearly envisages WiMAX evolving towards the almost ubiquitous presence of Wi-Fi in notebooks. 

He argues that for notebook manufacturers the incremental costs of adding embedded WiMAX will be reasonable as there are “substantial commonalities and reuse” between Wi-Fi and WiMAX in the PHY, MAC and RF subsystem layers because the underlying OFDM-based chips operate in a similar fashion.

Sprint Nextel, for example, will operate WiMAX in 2.5GHz spectrum and with Wi-Fi operating at 2.4GHz there are “options for substantial RF reuse” according to Stavig.  

He concludes: “We think the cost difference between standalone WiMAX and Wi-Fi/WiMAX will be reasonable. We expect the gap to be smaller than other WAN solutions, than 3G.”

“WiMAX chipset prices could reach $15 with sufficient volumes in 2010 or even as low as $5 at another point in time assuming integration with Wi-Fi and meaningful volumes,” suggests Signals Research. “Our estimate is that consumers will pay at least $75 when an embedded WiMAX solution is first available.”

There are challenges associated with combining WiMAX and Wi-Fi in the same silicon, acknowledges Stavig, such as “noise issues” between the two technologies, and Intel will have to work with notebook manufacturers and other OEMs to create appropriate antenna designs. 

In Beijing, Intel senior fellow and director of its Communications Technology Lab, Kevin Kahn suggested the solution lies in creating parallel modules for each radio standard, using the radios “so that they are never physically doing operations at the same time.”

Also in Beijing, Intel executives confirmed that the company would not integrate 3G into its silicon, but what about further down the line, will Intel support LTE?

“We cancelled our internal 3G project due to insufficient ROI,” says Stavig. “While we no longer have an internal HSDPA solution that doesn’t make any statement on future 3GPP and 3GPP2 solutions.”

Stavig is also reticent about Intel’s specific plans for WiMAX in handheld devices, but confirms that the company is still exploring ways to get WiMAX into mobile equipment and notes that among vendors there is “strong demand for WiMAX across mobile platforms.”

The increased take-up of portable and mobile WiMAX services will mean that, starting in 2009, growth in revenues from non-fixed WiMAX services will outstrip growth in revenues from fixed WiMAX services, according to a new report from Informa Telecoms & Media.

The report-’WiMAX Broadband Convergence: Emerging Fixed, Portable & Mobile Revenue Opportunities’-also says that non-fixed-service revenues will account for almost 80% of total WiMAX service revenues by 2012.

As the first portable WiMAX devices arrive, in the form of PC cards and notebook computers, portable revenues will start to increase strongly and will provide almost half of total revenues by 2012, the report says.

Mobile devices will follow, according to the report, with revenues from mobile users growing even faster, albeit from a small base, to reach 30% of total revenues by 2012, showing the value that will be placed on the ease of use and flexibility provided by a variety of device form factors.

The largest element of WiMAX revenues worldwide will be access charges, growing to US$17 billion in 2012, Informa’s report says. Value-added services for both the consumer and business sectors are forecast to grow significantly faster, reaching about 30% of total revenues in 2012, while advertising is expected to start later but show the fastest growth of the three revenue streams, reaching just under 13% of the total by the end of the forecast period.

WiMAX revenues by service type, 2007-2012 (US$bn)

Source: Informa Telecoms&Media “The assumption is that WiMAX operators will continue to charge flat-rate fees, similar to wired broadband fees, albeit with usage limits,” says Mike Roberts, a principal analyst at Informa. “This is in contrast to the per-megabyte fees charged by some mobile operators.”

Value-added-revenue streams will be derived from services aimed at both the consumer and the business sector, such as VoIP; e-mail; entertainment (including music, games, interactive TV/VOD and radio); information (including Internet searching, news and podcasting); and mobile-office/mobile-work-force products (VPN, intranet access, e-mail and scheduling applications).

In the WiMAX arena, services aimed at the consumer are likely to still be the main sector by 2012, driven by new forms of enhanced e-mail, combined with multimedia services, such as IPTV and audio/video clips, and the integration of web-enabled services with “rich voice” applications.

Take-up in the business sector is likely to increase with the merging of fixed and mobile functions (as seen in the BT Fusion FMC service), incorporating features such as single-number calling, intelligent conferencing and location-sensitive applications.

The forecasts assume that there will be a significant degree of convergence between fixed, wireless and mobile broadband services, meaning that a single subscription will often provide access to broadband via a range of networks, including fixed, wireless and mobile.

Business models are expected to be primarily based on subscriptions covering a basic access charge plus additional charges for selected value-added services. Prepaid charging is also assumed to increase alongside subscription-based models.

Advertising-funded business models will begin to be a feature of the market by 2012, the report says.

User-generated content will lead to viral marketing and widespread uploading/sharing of content, and VoIP will become a significant traffic generator (bundled into information/entertainment and business services), the report says.

Consumer e-mail will move into the mass market – using a push e-mail model similar to the BlackBerry, but not requiring special device or connectivity – and the business sector will begin to adopt advanced IP services, according to the report.

North America is forecast to be the largest regional market in terms of service revenues by 2012, largely because of the announced plans of major operators, such as Sprint Nextel and Clearwire. Next is Asia Pacific, where KT and SK Telecom have already deployed and where major operators, such as Japan’s KDDI, are waiting in the wings.

The report says that WiMAX will initially provide basic broadband access in emerging markets (the developing Asia Pacific countries, Latin America, Africa/Middle East) but will also evolve to support advanced converged services in these markets, though often later than in developed markets.

Given that the first certified WiMAX equipment only hit the market in early 2008, it is understandable that services based on WiMAX are still niche in most regions, the Informa report says.

The forecast figures cover both pre-WiMAX and WiMAX services, partly because these markets are closely related, and partly because there will be migration from pre-WiMAX to WiMAX. Even so, pre-WiMAX equipment is widespread and is forecast to remain in use beyond 2012.

For more information about the ‘WiMAX Broadband Convergence: Emerging Fixed, Portable & Mobile Revenue Opportunities’ report, contact jayshree.badhan@informa.com

Clearwire Corporation has received final approval from the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for the first WiMAX laptop card. The card will connect to the Clearwire network and is on target to be available during the second half of 2007. Clearwire Chairman and CEO Perry Satterlee said ‘The FCC’s approval of our laptop card is a significant milestone in bringing to market a ‘true broadband’ wireless service with a device that facilitates even greater portability than our existing modem permits.’

Clearwire offers service in 37 metro markets, covering approximately 8.9 million people in more than 350 municipalities in Alaska, California, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, Washington and Wisconsin in the United States, as well as 1.2 million people in Ireland, Belgium and Denmark (under the Clearwire name through Danske Telecom).

Source: Telegeography

This is an Update to my previous Post ‘Intel Sets up WiMAX Ventures with Orascom and Enertel‘

 ——

Clearwire puts the ‘how’ in WiMAX

WiMAX is getting a bad rap, but Clearwire has a way to make it work

Op-ed  By Bill Baker, Network World, 04/06/07

There is a recurring scene in nearly every Star Trek episode where Captain Kirk asks Scotty to give him more power, and Scotty, with his heavy Highlander accent replies: “Captain, I’m gevin yeah all she’s got! Any mohrrr and I’m afrrraid she’ll blow.”

Scotty’s famous and often-parodied line just about sums up recent realities about WiMAX.

The recent, much-anticipated IPO by Clearwire and its subsequent and sobering 20% decline only seems to validate that, at least for now, WiMAX gave us “all she had.”

After so much hype about the undeniable advantages of WiMAX, all of a sudden people have come to realize that, at least domestically, WiMAX may not be the broadband bonanza it was hyped up to be. The blogosphere is full of questions about WiMAX’s technical, deployment and business challenges.

This is quite different from even a few weeks ago when the hype was almost deafening. Intel trumpeted its “disruptive characteristics” and committed more than $600 million to Clearwire’s previous round of funding (summer 2006). During that same round Motorola acquired Clearwire’s hardware business for $300 million. Turnaround hopefuls made WiMAX a central part of their growth imperatives. WiMAX hype, just like the leftover background radiation from the Big Bang, was omnipresent.

Disappointedly, I now see that the pendulum has already swung all the way to the other side. And despite Sprint’s recent announcement to expand its WiMAX coverage into a dozen additional markets, the WiMAX atmosphere is full of doom and gloom, and some even dare ask if there is a business case for WiMAX at all.

Obviously, this calls for the secretive WiMAX warriors to come out and save the day, so it’s a good thing I just sharpened my pen. Oh, and yes Intel, do join in.

As the co-founder, initial investor and creative force behind one of WiMAX’s pioneers (Malibu Networks, 1999) I am, have been and always will be a diamond-card-carrying WiMAX supporter. Having grown up in the majestic mountains of Macedonia without any infrastructure I appreciate what it means to be a “have-not” and the global opportunity WiMAX brings to the developing world.

Domestically, our simple business plan called for addressing un-served and underserved markets (translation: second- and third-tier cities like Fresno or Bakersfield, Calif.) and internationally, the developing world (translation: Macedonia).

I am still proud of the fact there was not a single mention of “next-gen” 4G services, hip-hop lifestyles, movie downloads-on-the-go or mobile WiMAX (another addition to my growing oxymora list). Just plain and simple broadband connectivity where none was economically or monopolistically feasible.

Not surprisingly, what we believed then still holds true today, and Clearwire is proof – not the IPO, but its well-conceived go-to-market strategy, which is why I feel it now needs defending. (Author’s note: this is not an attempt to justify our premature timing but an honest effort to highlight and complement a viable WiMAX deployment model.)

As I examine Clearwire’s rollout strategy the first thing I notice is what is missing. From a coverage perspective there are no big-league NFL cities, only second- and third-tier NASCAR or Rodeo Circuit markets. Clearwire’s coverage feels like a military ground invasion map; no grand-scale, shock-and-awe-win-overnight-at-any-cost approach, but rather a carefully planned deployment where insurgency, uh, I mean incumbency, is weak. Going against the telcos’ (or cablecos’) broadband infrastructure is no picnic, but it is a bit easier in Lubbock, Texas, or Duluth, Minn., than taking them head-on in L.A. or Dallas.

Clearly, Clearwire’s strategy is to establish a strong base; with five large states in the West loaded with second- and third-tier markets it is a good bet they will do so. In addition, it also has few strategic entry points; two in the North, one in Texas, another in Florida and one in North Carolina. And if I am reading it correctly the idea is to first succeed in their designated territories and then converge inward. West Point would be proud.

This is why I favor their current approach; they are focused on establishing solid regional presence before expanding nationwide. I call it the Wal-Mart Doctrine. 

And the best thing about Clearwire’s strategy is the other missing component; they are not promising cool WiMAX phones with built-in MP3 players anytime soon. Clearwire is focused on delivering simple and affordable high-speed Internet access along with an unlimited phone plan (via VoIP).

Look no further than Clearwire’s founder Craig McCaw to understand why. As the founder and driving force behind McCaw Cellular (which became AT&T Wireless, The Former) Mr. Mobility is very aware that he could not generate immediate revenues with futures (as in mobile WiMAX). Current mobility, which he himself helped create, may not perfect but it is pervasive, for the most part.

He also knew, especially after Teledesic, that in order to succeed he would need to establish a solid revenue foundation for Clearwire. That is best achieved by serving and effectively competing in secondary and tertiary markets where the competition is either Bob’s Local Phone Co. or a severely despised, city-slicking service provider with voice prompts intentionally designed to ensure end users can never complain. And there is one last thing that I really, really like about Clearwire’s approach. Forgive my conjecture but my intuition tells me that this time The Roaming One also considered NPV as a basis for expansion.

In the service world the key consideration for deploying anything is cost of capital; the more expensive it is, the longer the payback will be. Unlike the enterprise market where an investment in new infrastructure has almost immediate returns, in the service sector ROI takes years, even decades. No enterprise CIO has ever heard of NPV (Net Present Value), nor is cap-ex a serious consideration, but in the service sector there is a whole science behind NPV.

NPV (and not 3G) is the enemy of WiMAX. There is more to deploying virgin, non-backward-compatible infrastructure than just cost per bits transmitted.

To simplify, NPV is the delta between present value of cash inflows and present value of cash outflows. If one considers that before there are any cash inflows (as in, paying customers) there are A WHOLE LOT OF CASH OUTFLOWS (infrastructure build-outs, time-consuming site selections, cap-ex, customer acquisition costs, etc.), one quickly begins to understand the deployment dilemma.

So, to minimize NPV exposure Clearwire is offering high-speed Internet access, and cost-effective phone service for both residential and small businesses, as it expands its coverage area. Build and bill as you grow, I call it.

Obviously, McCaw learned a thing or two from his Teledesic venture. What the projected $9 billion bomb proved is that when deploying something new it is best to go slow and grow organically. Emerging markets (WiMAX, IPTV, IMS, etc.) are all about organic growth; you can’t put nine pregnant women in a room and expect a baby in a month. No hype from Intel or pressure from Wall Street will ever change that.

Once again, I am reminded of another recurring Star Trek scene as the Enterprise, after an engaging episode of battling the cloaking Klingons, slowly glides across interstellar space, while Captain Kirk calmly commands: “Take us to Warp 2, Mr. Chekhov” and Chekhov’s Russian-laden reply: “Aye, Keptin.”

Just like the Enterprise, Clearwire is on the right course; a five-year mission to boldly take WiMAX where it needs to go. Bet on it!

This article is from from the June 2006 WiMax report, comment if you have any update on the subject.

—-

Intel Sets up WiMAX Ventures with Orascom and Enertel

Intel Capital, the venture capital investment arm of Intel Corporation, has announced agreements to form WiMAX joint ventures with two firms, Egypt’s Orascom Telecom and Enertel Holding of the Netherlands. Intel will set up Orascom Telecom WiMAX Limited with Orascom Telecom and Worldmax with Enertel. Both investments are expected to be completed shortly, following the fulfilment of certain conditions and the receipt of various approvals. The telco partners will be the majority shareholders, with Intel as the lead investor. Orascom Telecom WiMAX Ltd will focus its efforts on working with governments and companies throughout the Middle East and parts of Asia to obtain suitable spectrum for the deployment of WiMAX services. The creation of the new firm is the first fruits of Intel’s Middle East and Turkey capital fund which was set up in November 2005.

Meanwhile, Worldmax is targeting the deployment of WiMAX services in the Netherlands. In addition to funding and personnel, Enertel is also contributing its nationwide 80MHz of 3.5GHz spectrum to support the new joint venture. No financial details were disclosed. Intel Capital has already made investments in the likes of PIPEX Wireless in the UK, DBD in Germany, Unwired Australia, Neovia of Brazil and MVSNet in Mexico, and is also working with infrastructure vendors such as Navini Networks and Beceem Communications. In addition, it has agreed to invest
USD600 million in wireless broadband operator Clearwire, Intel and Motorola have invested a total of USD900 million in the US-based wireless broadband operator Clearwire. Intel has agreed to pump USD600 million into the firm which currently offers services using proprietary technology developed by its subsidiary NextNet Wireless. Motorola, meanwhile, will pay USD300 million to acquire NextNet and
take an unspecified stake in Clearwire.

Source: Telegeography

Is ADSL up to the task?

Apr 11, 2007
By Al Senia